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These were not temporary blips driven by weather or short term policy constraints. Fixed asset investment, which drives demand for both steel and cement, turned decisively negative by the end of the year, falling around 3.8% for the full year and likely much more in the final quarter. Infrastructure buildout no longer expanded at double digit rates.
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Other research groups use different demographic assumptions about fertility, life expectancy, and migration to reach different long-term population figures. In contrast, the United States and Europe are projected to change more gradually. The US is expected to grow slowly and steadily, reaching about 420 million people by the end of the century. Based on these figures, its population peaked around 750 million in 2020, and is expected to fall to about 590 million by 2100, not far from China’s projected level. I redid the analysis this week, thinking I would publish again on this, but the chart is virtually identical, with nuclear flat along the bottom and renewables accelerating.
Steel, cement, and diesel freight were seen as inseparable from growth, while clean energy was framed as an additive layer that might slow emissions growth but not reverse it. China’s coal generation rose almost in lockstep with electricity demand for decades. Diesel trucks moved raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products across vast distances. Under that model, even rapid growth in wind and solar would coexist with rising fossil fuel use.